If there is one thing the US healthcare system is really really good at, it’s rooting out hidden disease via massive hyperdiagnostic screening campaigns. But there is always room for “improvement” by finding some unsuspecting cohort — in this case, 45-year-olds — that was getting just a little too complacent about the fact that virtually no one that age dies of something that could have been found — and also prevented or addressed — via a non-USPSTF-recommended screen.
Serves them right.
The American Cancer Society (ACS) recently decided that, because the rate of colon cancer has been increasing in the 45-to-49-year old cohort, that screenings should start in that age group. The “alarming” 22% increase in relative risk during this century translates into an increase in the absolute rate of colon cancer in the 45-to-49 cohort from 0.035% to 0.043%. Yes–0.008% more of the 45-to-49 population in this country will get colon cancer now than 18 years ago. I’m surprised they didn’t recommend calling out the National Guard.
Further, many of that 0.035% experienced symptoms, and hence would be getting a colonoscopy as a diagnostic test, not a screen. And others in that age grouping had a family history and should get screened regardless of what the “average” person should do. Suppose those two categories account for half of the colon cancer population. That leaves roughly 0.018% of the 45-to-49-year-old population who could possibly benefit from a screen.
As with the other “alarming” colon cancer figures that have been published in the last few years, your chances of having your life saved by a colon cancer screening at that age is about the same as your chances of being struck by lightning.
And a screen is far from a lifesaver in general. Quite the contrary, statistically speaking it is likely to find the slow-growing tumors while missing the more aggressive, faster-growing tumors that begin between screens.
The Hazards of Screening
That trivial benefit must be weighed against the nontrivial harms. The risk of a complication, such as a perforation, is estimated between 1.6% and 1.8%. (In all fairness to the ACS, they aren’t insisting that the screen be done via a colonoscopy, though the non-invasive screens have such high positive/inconclusive test rates that they often lead to colonoscopies.)
Unless I have the decimal point in the wrong place, that means the rate of complications is a whopping 320 times the likelihood of something being found. Oh, wait a sec — make that 3200 times.
OF course, the worst complication is death, and the mortality rate from colonoscopies (0.02%) appears to be, on its face, much higher than the rate of lives that would be saved. However, once again, though it kills me to say it, in all fairness the mortality rate, and for that matter the complication rate, increases with advancing age, meaning the younger you are, the less likely you are to die from this screening. So maybe the mortality rate in the 45-50-year-old cohort isn’t any higher than — and might even be slightly lower than — the rate at which early detection will save lives. I feel much better knowing this. Don’t you?
And what is it about colon cancer that brings out people’s inner very stable genius? Here is the Cleveland Clinic on the subject:
Newsflash: 144,000 is not “1 out of 19 people in the United States.” It is barely 1 out of 19 people in greater Cleveland.
The best argument against screening 45-year-olds
Nonetheless, when it comes to screening 45-year-olds for colon cancer, the best argument against it is that Star Wellness is for it. By way of background, Star Wellness is best known in wellness for not knowing anything about wellness. They take great pride in that, boasting that anyone can become a wellness vendor. All you need, they say, is a background in “sales or municipality administration,” five days of training…and of course a certified $65,000 check payable to — get ready — Star Wellness. No surprise that Star was leading the wellness industry’s race to the bottom until they got outstupided by Total Wellness, Interactive Health, and Wellsteps.
But Star Wellness is not willing to lose this race to the bottom without a fight.
Not content to offer the full range of USPSTF non-recommended screens, they are practically hyperventilating over this opportunity to add yet another one. They use the example of ovarian cancer screening to justify more colon screening. Here is the USPSTF on the subject of ovarian cancer screening:
The USPSTF found adequate evidence that screening for ovarian cancer can result in important harms, including many false-positive results, which can lead to unnecessary surgical interventions in women who do not have cancer. Depending on the type of screening test used, the magnitude of harm ranges from moderate to substantial and reflects the risk for unnecessary diagnostic surgery.
While we’re on the subject of Star Wellness…
Star, Vitamin B12 is not a vaccine.
And remind me why we are lining up employees to get Vitamin B-12 shots, vaccines or no vaccines?
While we’re on the subject of vaccines, according to the CDC, the biggest category of people who are supposed to get Hepatitis A/B vaccines include street drug users. If you are routinely hiring enough street drug users to be holding vaccination clinics focused on Hepatitis A/B, I’d say Vitamin B-12 deficiencies are not your biggest problem.
I had one of those complications on a screen and ended up in the ICU. If you are a journalist writing on screens (“hyperdiagnosis”), I would share my story.
Think VERY hard before getting a colonoscopy.